Now I Don't Know What To Think

I am conflicted about my race yesterday. Here are the details:

It was cold but sunny.  They made it a reported 10K but my Garmin said 6.45 miles.  
From Anderson Race Management:
Place: 122, Time: 46:38, Pace: 7:32

From my watch:
Distance: 6.45 miles, Time: 47:03, Pace: 7:17
Splits:
Mile 1: 7:30 
Mile 2: 7:20 
Mile 3: 7:20 
Mile 4: 7:13 
Mile 5: 6:58 
Miles 6: 7:08 
Fraction: 3:32 

I guess that is pretty good considering the conditions, but I don't know, I wanted to go faster, I guess. I did bike for a hard 45 minutes and lift weights (including four big leg sets) the day before so, should I really complain? I went on the Runner's World website and they have a tool that allows you to extrapolate one race distance time from another. Here is what they came up with when I put in the information from yesterday's race:

Notice the marathon time. That is damn near exactly the time I ran Twin Cities Marathon in. So, if I am to believe that, I am in the same shape I was at the end of last season - that is pretty good. Especially considering I am about ten pounds heavier right now. Let's hope that this is fairly accurate and I am starting where I left off, because, hey, could you ask for a better place to start? Let's also remember that this is my second season. It's not like I have been doing this for years. I should probably give myself a huge break and just get back to work and build from where I am. It is a long time until the snow melts and an even longer time until I am swimming in Cedar Lake. I have to remind myself to do what I can now and be patient and the rest will come.